Darryl, I think you are still missing part of the equation. You have attempted to list potential points earned by pilot type kills. That would indeed be part of the points accumulation, however, I think that the loss of ANY aircraft also has an assigned value per aircraft (regardless of the pilot rank).
Per the series rules: 18. Victory Points - victory points are awarded for e/a losses(from all causes), enemy pilots KIA or POW, various AI targets destroyed and fields closed during play. A full list is provided in the summary.
The frame summary page lists the points per each aircraft destroyed (front line and second line aircraft). The P38F is considered a front line aircraft, and the 4th FG lost something like 19? Each P38F is valued at 0.75 points, so that's about 14.25 points for the Axis, and doesn't include aircraft lost by other Allies squads.
If I am correct in my interpretation of the the rules and scoring system for this TOD, we simply cannot afford the heavy fighter losses that we encountered in frame 1. If, on the other hand, I am incorrect and the only remaining points to be totaled are those related to pilots killed, then the loss of so many of our fighter aircraft don't really matter so much.
Sorry to cause a stink regarding our perception of how we did, but IMHO, Axis take the points lead for frame 1 even though the Allies were able to move the front lines a bit. Maybe we squeaked by on points, maybe not. Still waiting for the final score to be tallied and posted by the magically mysterious S3 scorekeeper.
